Uganda Cranes could climb about seven places in the next Fifa rankings after completing an unbeaten four-match international run featuring two wins and two draws.
Uganda entered the September-October window ranked 89th but are projected to move towards 82nd when Fifa releases its latest rankings on Wednesday, October 7.
The position remains unofficial, but positive results against Tunisia, Libya and DR Congo have put Paul Put’s side in line for a significant rise.
Uganda drew 1-1 away to Tunisia, defeated Libya 1-0 in Hoima in the 2027 Afcon Qualifiers, then travelled to Johannesburg where they beat DR Congo 2-0 before drawing the second friendly 1-1.
It represents a D-W-W-D run in which Uganda scored five goals, conceded two and kept two clean sheets.
More importantly for the rankings, three of those results came against teams positioned above Uganda.
From Radès to Johannesburg
The run began in Radès on September 24 when Uganda recovered from an early setback to draw 1-1 with Tunisia in their opening 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifier.
Tunisia scored after 12 minutes, but Rogers Mato equalised in the 68th minute after being set up by Nathan Asiimwe.
Five days later, Uganda went one better against Libya at Hoima City Stadium.
Arnold Vula, brought into the starting XI for Travis Mutyaba, headed home Allan Okello’s free-kick in first-half added time to secure a 1-0 victory.
That left Uganda with four points from their opening two Afcon qualifiers before attention shifted to two friendlies against DR Congo.
The Leopards entered the series ranked 41st in the world, 48 places above Uganda.
Despite Put making several changes, Uganda won the opening encounter 2-0 at FNB Stadium.
James Bogere capitalised on a goalkeeping mistake to open the scoring before Kelvin Boateng doubled the advantage after the break following Abdoulaye Sissako’s powerful run through midfield.
Boateng’s strike was his first senior international goal. Uganda then completed the window unbeaten after Bogere struck again in Monday’s second meeting.
Nathanaël Mbuku had given DR Congo the lead in the 69th minute, but substitute Denis Omedi released Bogere to score an 89th-minute equaliser for a 1-1 draw.
Bogere finished the two-match series with two goals as several fringe players strengthened their cases for greater involvement under Put.
How are Fifa points calculated?
Fifa uses a system adapted from the Elo rating method, meaning points are added or deducted after individual matches.
The calculation considers the result, strength of the opposition and importance of the fixture.
Simply put, beating a team ranked considerably higher earns more than defeating weaker opposition, while competitive fixtures carry greater weight than friendlies.
Afcon qualifiers have an importance weighting of 25, compared with 10 for friendlies played during an international window.
That makes Uganda’s results against Tunisia and Libya particularly important, while beating 41st-ranked DR Congo also provided value despite being a friendly.
The formula also considers the expected outcome based on the ranking-point difference between the teams.
That is why consistently getting results against stronger countries offers Uganda a quicker route up the table.
Why does 82nd matter?
A climb from 89th towards 82nd would be encouraging but should also be placed in perspective.
Uganda’s highest-ever Fifa ranking is 62nd, achieved in January 2016 under Micho, putting into perspective how much ground the Cranes still have to recover.
Rankings matter for more than bragging rights, because they can influence seedings for international competitions and, in certain football markets, contribute towards regulations governing the movement of foreign players.
England provides one of the clearest examples, players without an existing right to work in England may require a Governing Body Endorsement under the Football Association’s points-based system.
Points can be accumulated through international appearances, domestic league minutes, continental competition participation and the level of a player’s club. The ranking of the player’s national team also matters.
Why the top 50 should interest Uganda
Under the English system, national teams are divided into ranking bands including 1-10, 11-20, 21-30, 31-50 and 51 and below.
Whether Uganda are 89th or 82nd, they remain in the lowest category. So climbing to 82nd would not suddenly open Premier League or Championship opportunities for Ugandan players.
The more significant threshold is the top 50. For players representing countries ranked 51st or lower, international appearances provide relatively limited assistance towards the endorsement requirements.
Once a country enters the 31-50 bracket, regular international appearances become considerably more valuable.
A player representing a country ranked between 31st and 50th who features in at least 70% of eligible internationals can qualify for an automatic pass through that category.
That does not mean reaching the top 50 guarantees Ugandan players transfers to England.
Their club level, playing minutes and other criteria remain important, while different routes exist within the system.
But a stronger Uganda ranking can remove one obstacle, progress, but plenty still to do and Uganda’s historical high of 62nd shows the size of the task.
Even matching that record would leave the Cranes outside the top-50 bracket, although it would place them considerably closer than their current position.
The encouraging part for Put is the direction of travel. Uganda have taken four points from their opening two Afcon qualifiers.
They followed that with a win and draw against DR Congo while giving opportunities to players outside the established starting XI.
Mato, Vula, Boateng and Bogere have supplied the goals during an unbeaten four-match stretch, with Bogere scoring twice in Johannesburg.
If Wednesday’s rankings confirm a rise towards 82nd, the immediate reward will be movement up the Fifa table.